ANALYSES OF ERRORS IN MEDIUM-TERM NUMERICAL FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH 1998     

王兴荣  姚叶青  尚瑜  陈晓平  程小泉  率爱梅 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2003,9(1):105-112

1INTRODUCTIONItiswellknownthattheaccuracyoftheforecastingofwesternPacificsubtropicalhighcontributesmuchtothesuccessofforecastsofmedium-termprecipitationduringtherainingseasonofeasternChina.Forthepastfewyears,NWPproductsarebecomingindispensablefoundationsforoperationalforecastersmakingmedium-termforecasts,withtherapidmodernizationofmeteorologicalmeansandon-goingimprovementoftheNWPproducts.ModelscapableofproducingNWPproductscannotyieldresultsthatentirelyrepresentthe搕rueatmosphere?butha…  相似文献   

A high-accuracy method for simulating the XCO<Subscript>2</Subscript> global distribution using GOSAT retrieval data     

MingWei Zhao  XingYing Zhang  TianXiang Yue  Chun Wang  Ling Jiang  JingLu Sun 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2017,60(1):143-155

A high-accuracy surface modeling (HASM) method based on the fundamental theorem of surfaces, is developed to simulate XCO₂ surfaces using the GOSAT retrieval XCO₂ data. Two tests are designed to investigate the simulation accuracy. The first test divides the existing satellite retrieval XCO₂ data into training points and testing points, and simulates the XCO₂ surface using the training points while computing the simulation error using the testing points. The absolute mean error (MAE) of the testing points is 1.189 ppmv, and the corresponding values of the comparison methods, Ordinary Kriging, IDW, and Spline are 1.203, 1.301, and 1.355 ppmv, respectively. The second test simulates the XCO₂ surface using all the satellite retrieval points and uses the TCCON (Total Carbon Column Observing Network) site observation values as the ture values. For the six typical TCCON sites, the HASM simulation MAE is 1.688 ppmv, and the satellite retrieval MAE at the same sites is 2.147 ppmv. These results indicate that HASM can successfully simulate XCO₂ surfaces based on satellite retrieval data.  相似文献   

淮河上游干流径流量对不同气候要素变化的响应研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

薛颖  高超  张勋  许莹  李鹏 《水文》2017,37(3):22-28

基于淮河流域上游地区8个气象站点1959~2008年日降水量与温度数据,通过改变降水量和温度建立25种气候情景,利用SWIM水文模型,对不同情景下的径流量进行模拟,分析了淮河上游地区径流量对不同气候要素变化的敏感性,有利于该地区旱涝灾害的及时预警。结果表明,淮河流域上游地区,降水量的变化对径流量的影响较大,在仅考虑降水量和温度的情况下,径流量对降水量变化的敏感性系数处在1.7012~2.1358范围内,而对温度变化的敏感性较弱,三个站点径流量对温度变化的敏感性系数处在-0.0499~0.1547范围内;研究区在研究期内降水量变化对径流量的变化贡献较小,由大坡岭向下游依次为-0.0014,-0.0052,-0.0009,温度变化对径流量的贡献较大,由大坡岭向下游依次为0.0828,0.0152,0.0039,径流量对气候要素的响应不仅由其对气候要素变化的敏感性决定,也受到气候要素变化幅度的影响。  相似文献